Warrants, translated
Option Odds
Forget Greek alphabet soup. See the price your underlying needs to reach, how time decay changes the trade, and the modelled odds of finishing profitable.
MVP test case: Société Générale Moderna warrant
Your trade
Spot, FX and implied volatility are editable because this first MVP does not yet have a live market-data feed. The warrant metadata is fixed from the real-life test case.
Instrument
UnderlyingModerna (MRNA)
IssuerSociété Générale
StrategyCall
Strike$90.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Ratio0.1
The question that matters
Estimated chance you finish profitable at expiry
—
model estimate, not a forecast
Break-even at expiry—
Move needed from today—
Chance expires worthless—
Days to expiry—
Intrinsic value today—
Time value today—
Break-even accounts for the 0.1 ratio and EUR/USD: the €4.68 warrant price is not the same thing as $4.68 of option premium.
Profit / loss map
Rows are possible MRNA prices. Columns are time passing. Each cell shows estimated return on the warrant versus your purchase price.
Before expiry the grid uses a Black–Scholes style estimate with your volatility input. At expiry it uses the warrant payoff directly: ratio × max(MRNA − strike, 0), translated back to euros.